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Dec 6, 2016

Overview

  • What will happen to the White House press briefing room in Trump Administration?
  • Trump’s last press conference was in July
  • Favors addressing public directly, through Twitter and YouTube
  • Not obligated to hold press conferences
    • FDR preferred radio
    • JFK preferred television
  • No recent President has been as openly derisive of press as Trump
    • Has called press: scum, lowlifes, the lowest form of life
  • Will corporate America co-opt the press tactics of Trump?
  • Wouldn’t most CEOs rather avoid “facing the press” in the wake of a bad quarter?
  • Why not just Tweet an explanation directly
  • 2016 word of the year: “post-truth”
    • World where objective facts matter less in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief
  • Apparently, those in corporate PR are fielding questions from clients about how to adapt their communication style for the “age of Trump.”
  • Change is in the air and big corporations know it
  • Pew survey in October:
    • 5% of people have “great deal of trust” in media
    • 33% in military
    • 24% in medical scientists
    • 4% in business leaders
    • 3% in elected officials
  • Trump did not invent this scenario, the internet did
    • Push for 24 hours news
    • Growing illiteracy
    • Shortening attention spans
    • Ease of social media
    • Click bait headlines
    • Customizable newsfeeds
    • What you want to know trumps what you ought to know
    • Shrinking civil discourse
    • Shrinking common ground among Americans
  • Trump knew the media could not afford to NOT cover him
  • Welcome to a post-truth era where facts matter less
  • Think for a moment what the world can do with that
  • Stocks took a breather last week but rotation toward domestic growth is intact
  • Brent crude has surged in price
  • Expectation of rising inflation lifted 10-yr treasuries to 17 month high
  • Rising inflation must be accompanied by rising growth
  • All eyes are on 2017 to see whether that growth comes
  • Meanwhile, China has been outperforming the US markets
  • An inward looking US is good for China looking for an opportunity for a power grab

For more: http://investorinthefamily.com/

Dec 1, 2016

Podcast Overview:

  • S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell all at record highs last week
  • BofA Merrill Lynch survey of global fund managers:
    • Expect global real economy to strengthen over next 12 months: In october 19% agreed with this, after election 35% do
    • Global inflation expectations vaulted to the highest level since 2004
  • Is all this optimism as sign the bull market will continue or that we’ve reached peak?
  • Are current stock market gains stealing from 2017?
  • Goldman Sachs strategist expects Trump tax reforms to lead to the repatriation of $200B
    • Could be used to pay down raising company debt levels
    • Nonfinancial companies are sitting on $1.6T in cash (12% of assets as opposed to avg of 7%)
  • Goldman expects companies to spend $2.6T of cash in 2017
    • 52% on capital exp, R&D, and mergers
    • 48% on buybacks and dividends
  • Small cap stocks that could benefit from infrastructure spending are stealing attention from multinationals that could be hit by strong dollar
  • Market is behaving like Trump will fulfill promises they like and break the ones they don’t like
  • AAII survey showed bullishness jump from 23.7% to 50% in just three weeks
  • Demand for put relative to calls on SPY shrank to July 2016 levels
  • Too early for bulls or bears to draw conclusions
  • The S&P traded at 28 times earnings in 1999 but “only” 17 times today
  • Stock market cap is 200% of GDP (very high) and interest rates are at record lows and rising fast
    • Can things get more favorable?
  • Concerns over what Trump will do with trade partnerships continues
    • “Protectionist” policies could harm US economy
    • Retaliation from trade partners could be a problem

Find more at Investor in the Family.

Nov 9, 2016

AT&T is buying TimeWarner, we think. Should T shareholders celebrate or fear this deal? What are the chances of the deal making it past regulators and becoming a reality?

I sit down with Adam, the Dividend Sensei to discuss more.

A quick overview:

  • How much debt will the Time Warner deal add to AT&T?
  • Will this debt load, in addition to DirectTV debt be manageable?
  • How will the acquisition impact future free cash flow for AT&T?
  • What new markets is AT&T expanding into?
  • What does all this mean for the future of AT&T's dividend?
  • Will this solve AT&T's "dumb pipe" problem?
  • Will this make AT&T the new king of content?
  • Did AT&T structure the deal to offer best value for shareholders?
  • And more...

Companies Mentioned: AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Time Warner (TWX)

Nov 9, 2016

Everybody hates MCD. Well, maybe not. The company has faced stiff competition and hit some road bumps but appears to be back on its feet. How hopeful should shareholders be in the future of MCD?

I sit down with Adam, the Dividend Sensei to discuss more.

A quick overview:

  • What obstacles is McDonalds facing?
  • Is MCD managment up to the challenge?
  • What strategy should investors take toward MCD?
  • What challenges is MCD facing internationally?
  • How well have new MCD initatives helped to overcome these challenges?
  • What does the future look like for MCD?

Companies Mentioned: McDonalds (MCD)

Nov 9, 2016

Wells Fargo blew it. Big time. Then why don’t investors seem to care? Join us as we take a deep dive into WFC to understand what actually happened and what investors should expect going forward.

I sit down with Adam, the Dividend Sensei to discuss more.

A quick overview:

  • The historical reputation of Wells.
  • Why this scandal is a big deal.
  • Why this is embarrassing for Warren Buffett.
  • How widespread is the scandal?
  • What is Wells doing about it?
  • When will investors know the true impact?

Companies Mentioned: Wells Fargo (WFC)

Nov 9, 2016

Does Ford have the greatest company management on the planet? You might think so after today’s show. Leadership is a big deal to me, I’ve seen it make or break companies over and over.

After hearing what Ford’s leadership has accomplished, their vision for the future, and the valuation prospects for the company, my mouth almost started watering (figuratively speaking, of course).

A few highlights:

  • How badly Ford and GM screwed up in the 2000s.
  • How Ford and GM re-established themselves.
  • Why Ford and GM stocks have been flat.
  • What investors are really worried about.
  • The future at Ford and GM see it.
  • How Ford and GM will confront autonomous vehicles.
  • Just how big is the margin of safety for Ford and GM at current prices?

Companies Mentioned: GM (GM), Ford (F), Nissan (NSANY), Tesla (TSLA), Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT)

Nov 8, 2016

Wells Fargo has been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the past month.

It's no secret that Warren Buffett is a major shareholder in Wells Fargo, how will he respond to the recent developments? Should other investors follow suit?

I sit down with seasoned banker Rick Parsons to learn more.

A quick overview:

  • Why Buffett originally bought Wells back in the late 1980s.
  • Why he sold in the late 1990s and bought again in early 2000s.
  • How he made a bad move with Wells in 2007.
  • What he will likely do with his Wells position going forward.
  • A simple measure to guide investors as to when it's a good time to buy bank shares.
  • How the banking climate has changed.
  • Why an increase in interest rates won't help banks like so many people expect.
  • What banks will benefit from rising rates.
  • What Rick's favorite banks are right now.

Companies Mentioned: Wells Fargo (WFC), Berkshire (BRK.B), PNC (PNC), Huntington (HBAN), Bancorp (FITB), Chase (JPM), Comerica (CMA)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Nov 2, 2016

Just how long is Elon Musk's runway? Tesla continues to race against time and the attempted addition of SolarCity only complicates the matter.

Montana Skeptic has closely followed Tesla as a contributor here on Seeking Alpha. We sat down recently to discuss the current situation and outlook.

A quick overview:

  • Why Tesla is far from being the model for automobile safety.
  • Responding to the passion of Tesla investors.
  • How should people invest in Tesla?
  • What will lead to the Tesla balloon popping?
  • Why the future of Tesla relies on the Model 3.
  • Why the Model 3 won't see a big rollout in 2017.
  • The danger of the SolarCity deal.
  • The dangerous inter-dependency between Elon Musk's companies.
  • How and why the Chevy Bolt is beating the Model S.
  • Historical parallels for Musk.
  • Why Tesla is not Amazon.
  • Outside sources for better understanding Tesla.
  • The problem created by subsidies.

Companies Mentioned: Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), SolarCity (SCTY)

Nov 2, 2016

It's no secret that many dividend stocks are over-extended in their valuations. What should dividend investors do in light of this?

I caught up to Mark Painter to get his thoughts on where things are and what savvy investors can do to boost yields and lower risk.

A quick overview:

  • Why are dividend stocks so overvalued?
  • How real is a the "correction" risk for dividend stocks?
  • Where can investors go to find yield right now?
  • Are there any hidden opportunities in dividend stocks?
  • What options are available for boosting dividend yields?
  • Is selling now a good idea?

Companies Mentioned: General Motors (GM), Gold (GLD), Utilities (XLU), Treasuries (TLT), High Yield Bond (HYG), S&P 500 (SPY)

Nov 1, 2016

Intel has failed with it's attempts to break into mobile. What does this mean for the company's future?

I sit down with Mark Hibben to get a better understanding for what is going on and what the future may hold.

A quick overview:

  • Understanding the paradigm shift that has taken place in the semiconductor industry.
  • The dagger in the heart of Intel bulls.
  • The failure of the commodity chip model in mobile.
  • What advantages does ARM have over Intel chips?
  • What happens when Qualcomm comes out with an ARM server processor?
  • Is Intel moving in the right direction?
  • A development bigger than the internet.

Companies Mentioned: Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), Samsung, Huawei, Qualcomm (QCOM), Texas Instruments (TXN)

Nov 1, 2016

After Apple reported it's first earnings decline in 15 years, what should shareholders make of things?

Mark Hibben and I sit down to discuss where Apple is struggling and whether investors have much to look forward to at this point.

A quick overview:

  • Why Mark doesn't buy the peak iPhone concept.
  • Will Apple be able to resume growth in future quarters?
  • If so, where will the growth come from?
  • How Apple continues to fail with iPhone marketing.
  • Is the Apple Watch officially a failure?
  • Should investors be concerned about the future of Apple?
  • Where is innovation coming from in the industry if not from Apple?

Companies Mentioned: Apple (AAPL), Huawei, Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD), Tesla (TSLA)

 

Oct 26, 2016

The dollar has once again been surging and commodities have taken a blow. What's behind the bullish dollar and how might it impact earnings season?

I sit down with Ian Bezek to discus what's going on and what opportunities we could be looking for.

A quick overview:

  • We take a look back and learn from the massive dollar move of 2014
  • What's behind the latest bullish move in the dollar?
  • How has oil managed to remain an outlier in the plunge commodities have taken lately?
  • How will the bullish dollar impact 3rd and 4th quarter earnings?
  • What opportunities can investors be on the look for in light of a surging dollar?
  • What are the mechanics of the dollar index? How does it actually work?

Companies Referenced: AstraZeneca (AZN), Unilever (UL), Diageo (DEO), PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP), Euro Trust (FXE), Canadian Dollar (FXC), Yen Trust (FXY), Gold (GLD), U.S. Oil Fund (USO), Boeing (BA), Airbus (EADSF), Mexico ETF (EWW)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Oct 26, 2016

Bond yields have been rising globally, does this mean the search for yield is over?

With interest rates rising and the Fed hinting at a rate hike in December, the yield landscape is changing.

I sit down with Ian Bezek to discuss what's going on and what we can do about it.

A quick overview:

  • Are rising yields here to stay?
  • Where is all the global optimism coming from?
  • How much control does the Fed really have?
  • Are the Fed and the Markets at odds over yields?
  • How do the Fed, big banks, bonds, and interest rates all work together?
  • What do the problems at Deutsche Bank (DB) tell us about the yield landscape?
  • Are we on the brink of a recession?

Companies Referenced: 20+ year Tresuries (TLT), S&P 500 (SPY), 7-10 year Tresuries (IEF), 1-3 year Tresuries (SHY), PIMCO Total Return (BOND), Core Total US Bond (AGG), High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Oct 25, 2016

Overview

  • When you have a hammer, everything is a nail
  • With Central Bankers, their tool is money and it’s becoming apparent their trillions can’t fix everything; but that doesn’t stop them from trying
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested recently that creating a “high pressure economy” could help with the sluggish recovery, most notably the unprecedented number of Americans who not only aren’t working, but aren’t even in the labor force
  • In a speech at the Boston Fed, Yellen said that pushing economic growth could counter the lingering effects of the great recession
  • The backdrop is the widely anticipated .25% Fed rate hike in Dec of this year
  • Yellen offered a defense for going slow with the rate hikes saying it has been in order to keep the pressure on the economy
  • This stronger economic growth would motivate businesses to invest more in expansion, especially if they could be more confident in the future
  • This could spur more R&D and faster growing start-ups
  • If you’re not in the labor market (aka looking for a job), then you’re not officially unemployed
  • The participation rate is currently at 62.4% of the adult population, lowest since 1978 (before women were fully integrated in workforce)
  • Alan Krueger from Princeton has found that there has been little improvement in the labor force participation rate, even as the jobless rate has declined to 5%
    • In other words: the idea that many labor force dropouts are returning to the labor force is unsupported by the data
  • The reasons for this seem unrelated to economics
  • Among younger men (21-30) the labor force participation rate fell 7.6% from 89.9 to 82.3% from 2004-2014

http://investorinthefamily.com/

Oct 19, 2016

Adam, the "Dividend Sensei" and I sit down to discuss Gilead (GILD). Adam provides a fire hydrant blast of information and expectations regarding Gilead, including some thoughts on the possibility of Gilead being acquired.

If you'd like to jump ahead in the interview to the discussion on Gilead's acquisition prospects, it begins around the 20 minute mark of the interview.

A quick overview:

  • Gilead's free cash flow prospects.
  • Company's track record, culture, R&D, manufacturing process, patent portfolio, and pipeline.
  • Adam's price targets for Gilead.
  • Who might purchase Gilead and for how much.
  • How he plans to respond if price falls any further.
  • Much more...

Companies Mentioned: Pfizer (PFE), JNJ (JNJ), Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), AstraZeneca (AZN), AbbVie (ABBV)

Oct 19, 2016

Aurelien Windenberger and I sit down to discuss SolarCity's (SCTY) financial position in light of their announced acquisition by Tesla (TSLA).

Many are saying SolarCity will face significant capital needs in the near future. Is this true? If so, how much will they really need to raise?

A quick overview:

  • A deep look at SolarCity's business model.
  • How SolarCity makes money and the role that tax credits play.
  • Why SolarCity is so hard to understand financially.
  • How the tax credit extension has hurt SolarCity.
  • Why SolarCity's balance sheet makes no sense.
  • Will SolarCity cannabalize cash from Tesla?
  • And more...
Oct 19, 2016

Richard Berger and I sit down to talk about his thoughts on an upcoming bear market. Richard shares what he's doing right now to make sure he is prepared for it.

This leads to an indepth conversation about Richard's overall investing approach. Out of the 100+ investing interviews I've conducted, Richard's approach continues to be one of my favorites.

A quick overview:

  • Why trying to predict a bear market will get you in trouble.
  • How he uses Gold (GLD) as his emergency fund.
  • How he utilizes cash covered puts in his strategy.
  • A detailed look at his investing approach.
  • What a market bottom looks like.
  • How he determines the fair value of a stock.
  • Much more...

Companies Mentioned: SP 500 (SPY), Cogate (CL), Coca-Cola (KO), PG (PG), General Mills (GIS), PPG (PPG), Consolidated Edison (ED), Exxon (XOM)

Oct 19, 2016

Leo Nelissen and I sit down to discuss his current outlook on the for the S&P 500 (SPY). This leads us to a conversation about the ISM Index and Durable Goods Report. How can investors best understand and use them to their advantage?

A quick overview:

  • Why Leo doesn't see much near-term potential for the S&P.
  • What is the ISM Index and how best should investors use it?
  • How to use the ISM to know when to be optimistic or pessimistic on the markets.
  • Where to find relevant info regarding ISM.
  • How Durable Goods Report relates to ISM.
  • How investors can best understand and use teh Durable Goods Report.

Companies Mentioned: Cummins (CMI), AK Steel (AKS)

Oct 17, 2016

Overview

  • Boomers staying in the workforce even as labor-force participation rate is at lows not seen since the 1970’s
  • Many working out of necessity:
    • Still supporting adult children
    • No retirement nest egg
  • Public sector employees are immune to this problem, right?
    • The payoff of “generous, assured pensions” may not be so certain
    • Moody’s says that state pension plans were short by around $1.25T at the end of 2015, which amounts to around 119% of state revenue
    • The gap is expected to grow in coming years as plans’ returns have fallen far below their 7.5% annual target (earning 0.52% instead in 2016 despite rallies in stocks and bonds)
    • Moody’s calculates the poor performance of pension plans will grow the shortfall to $1.75T in 2017.
    • The states with biggest gaps are Illinois and New Jersey
    • Some assert that policy makers would not allow for a potential recession as a result of a state and local pension funding crisis. As a result, the federal government would swoop in and to backstop the pensions with increased expenditure monetized by the Fed
    • Not all share that view, it’s likely that harsh decisions will be made in terms of adding to deficient pension plans and reducing their assumed returns from the apparently out of reach 7.5%

http://investorinthefamily.com/

 

Oct 12, 2016

Episode 100. I’m thankful to reach this milestone and thankful to each and everyone of you for helping to make this show possible. I’m genuinely humbled by your support and faithfulness.

 

In honor of episode 100, I am sharing a recording I did with David Stein from “money for the rest of us.” The show was originally recorded live from the TradeKing podcasting station. We were in San Diego a few weeks ago at a financial conference called “FinCon.”

 

While there we were given the opportunity to record a show together. We decided to discuss some of our biggest investing lessons learned in 2016.

 

I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

Oct 12, 2016

I sit down with John Miley, Associate Editor with The Kiplinger Letter with a special focus on technology.

This is the final of three interviews with John. Each interview lasts around 20 minutes and focus on 5G Technology, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and Drones and Robots respectively.

For each podcast, John shares details about where each technology stands, where it appears to be heading, what companies will be most impacted, and what it will mean for the economy and consumers.

A quick overview of our third interview:

  • How the FAA has fallen behind regarding regulation.
  • The impact of recent regulations released in August of this year.
  • Big push to allow drones to: 1) fly over people 2) fly without line of sight 3) fly at night.
  • Where we are in the evolution of the drone industry.
  • How big the industry is expected to be in 2025 (and number of jobs will create).
  • The huge impact drones will have on delivery services.
  • How privacy rules will impact drones.
  • The wide array of industries and services that will utilize drones.
  • The new roles that robots will play in manufacturing.
  • Robots to mow your lawn?
  • Much, much more on what the roll out of both drones and robots will look like and who it will impact.

Companies mentioned: Amazon (AMZN), FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS), Verizon (VZ), Ford (F), GM (GM), Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC), Tesla (TSLA) and more.

I hope you enjoy this final of three interviews with John Miley from The Kiplinger Letter.

Oct 11, 2016

I sit down with John Miley, Associate Editor with The Kiplinger Letter with a special focus on technology.

This is the second of three interviews with John. Each interview lasts around 20 minutes and focus on 5G Technology, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and Drones and Robots respectively.

For each podcast, John shares details about where each technology stands, where it appears to be heading, what companies will be most impacted, and what it will mean for the economy and consumers.

A quick overview of our second interview:

  • Did Oculus bungle their VR headset release?
  • Is AR/VR the natural evolution of smartphone technology?
  • Why it matters that Google's new smartphone was built for their VR platform.
  • How big and untapped of a market is AR/VR?
  • Examples of how VR is already being used in education.
  • How AR/VR will forever change the consumer shopping experience.
  • What AR/VR means for experiencing "live" events.
  • The role of Google Glass.
  • The impact on chip and sensor makers.
  • When to expect Apple to release a headset.
  • The return of the arcade.
  • How VR will impact PC makers.
  • When to expect AR/VR to become mainstream.
  • The crucial role Apple must play in wide scale AR/VR adoption in the U.S.
  • And much more.

Companies mentioned: Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Samsung, Sony (SNE), HTC, Lenovo, AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Comcast (CMCSA)

I hope you enjoy this second of three interviews with John Miley from The Kiplinger Letter.

Oct 11, 2016

I sit down with John Miley, Associate Editor with The Kiplinger Letter with a special focus on tech.

This is the first of three interviews with John. Each interview lasts around 20 minutes and focus on 5G Technology, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and Drones and Robots respectively.

For each podcast, John shares details about where each technology stands, where it appears to be heading, what companies will be most impacted, and what it will mean for the economy and consumers.

A quick overview of our first interview:

  • A history of the progression from 2G to 5G
  • What 5G is expected to "look like" (ex: speeds, latency, reliability, connectivity)
  • What infrastructure will be required and how long the roll out may take
  • FCC Chaiman calls 5G a "revolution" in communication
  • How much AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint have been investing in 5G development
  • What the biggest fears are for AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint regarding 5G
  • Which underlying wireless tech companies are likely to benefit most from 5G
  • What 5G will mean for smartphones
  • And plenty more!

Companies mentioned: AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), T-Mobile (TMUS), Sprint (S), Ericsson (ERIC), Huawei, Samsung, Cisco (CSCO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Juniper (JNPR), Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB)

I hope you enjoy this first of three interviews with John Miley from The Kiplinger Letter.

Oct 11, 2016

I hope you enjoy my overview of Randall Forsyth’s Up & Down Wall Street column from this week’s Barron’s magazine.

 

In it, I discuss what some are calling “peak liquidity” and a turning point in Central Bank crisis policies.

 

Overview

 

  • Taper tantrum 2.0 - the subtle suggestions from central bankers that, after 8 years, they may begin to move away from crisis policies
    • Ultralow interest rates
    • Massive securities purchases with the click of button
    • Medieval alchemists would have been jealous
  • Policies have been less than impressive, some academics say it’s because they haven’t been administered in strong enough doses
  • Former Treasury Sec Lawrence Summers recently endorsed the Fed purchasing corporate debt and equity securities
    • Yellen has said this would not be out of the question in future crises
  • Backlash against these policies has been brewing from outside the academic and mainstream economist fold
    • Ex: British Prime Minister Theresa May
    • Ex: Donald Trump
    • Central Bank leaders no longer seem like super heros
  • CBs seem to be considering a fundamental shift in policies
    • BOJ will begin targeting yield curve of Japanese gov bond mkt, aiming for 0% on the benchmark 10-year JGB. This is a shift from targeting a quantity of bond purchases to targeting a price. In theory, this could mean a reduction in purchases assuming targets are met.
    • ECB is considering a gradual reduction in securities purchases
  • Jeffrey Gundlach commented on the growing belief that interest rates will “never” rise by saying that when it’s said that something can “never” happen, it’s about to happen, he argued. He went on to say that zero or neg interest rates are doing more harm than good, the decline of Deutsche Bank (DB) is an example. You can’t help the economy by bankrupting the banks.
    • For these reasons and more, he believes the low in bond yields have already been seen (10-year treasury fells to 1.36% post-Brexit).
  • Major trend changes appear to be at hand.

http://investorinthefamily.com/

Oct 6, 2016

Bret Jensen is one of my favorite resources when it comes to biotech investing.

We sat down a few days ago to discuss some of his favorite small cap biotech companies that have near term (mostly 4Q) catalysts.

A quick preview:

  • What Bret considers to be an attractive risk/reward scenario in biotech
  • Why upcoming catalyts are the name of the game regarding small cap biotech
  • The 5 companies Bret sees positive catalysts for in the 4th quarter
  • How Bret would work companies like this into a portfolio (ex: position-sizing, etc)

Companies mentioned: Pfizer (PFE), AstraZeneca (AZN), Allergan (AGN), Egalet (EGLT), Synergy (SGYP), Portola (PTLA), Dynavax (DVAX), Cempra (CEMP)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

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